Daily Market-Implied RBA Cash Rate Probabilities | Last update: 22 September 2026 at 08:11 AM
Current Cash Rate: 4.35%
| Meeting Date |
Projected Rate |
Chance of Hike (50bp) |
Chance of Hike (25bp) |
Chance of Hold |
Chance of Cut (25bp) |
Chance of Cut (50bp) |
| 29 September 2026 |
4.35% |
0.0% |
30.0% |
70.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 03 November 2026 |
4.60% |
15.7% |
84.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 08 December 2026 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
18.5% |
81.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 09 February 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
41.8% |
58.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 23 March 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
27.8% |
72.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 04 May 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
20.2% |
79.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 22 June 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
6.8% |
93.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 10 August 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
93.3% |
6.7% |
0.0% |
| 28 September 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
100.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| 02 November 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
89.6% |
10.4% |
0.0% |
| 14 December 2027 |
4.60% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
86.8% |
13.2% |
0.0% |